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By Rayk Riechmann
Mineral exploration and development specialist Brazil Potash Corp. (NYSE: GRO) is advancing efforts to become Brazil’s largest potash fertilizer mining company. For investors, there’s an opportunity to bet on a rare disruptor in a gigantic market historically dominated by imports.
With 2.4 million tons of underground mining capacity, the Autazes project is designed to challenge foreign importers from Canada, Russia, and Belarus, disrupting a geopolitically fragile supply chain. The planned production capacity would allow GRO to supply approximately 17% of Brazil’s current potash demand.
The import-substitution strategy is based around solid business fundamentals: Leverage the strategic positioning of the Autazes project to undercut imported potash on price. Right now, GRO estimates that delivered cost of potash from the local facility will be approximately half the average of imported potash, creating a comfortable margin cushion.
Additionally, an estimated 43x-shorter delivery time provides significant supply chain flexibility for Brazilian farmers. Clearly, those arguments resonate with prospective customers, with 91% of the planned annual production already secured via binding take-or-pay agreements.
Currently, in the pre-revenue stage, the strategic focus lies on completing construction financing arrangements and advancing the infrastructure development for the project. With deep experience and industry expertise across the executive team, GRO is well equipped to move forcefully past initial project deliverables. Executive Chairman Mayo Schmidt, former CEO of Nutrien, the world’s largest fertilizer producer, and current CEO Matt Simpson bring the necessary blue-chip mining and fertilizer experience to the table.
A current $135 million market cap likely doesn’t do justice to the company’s long-term value. At full production, management anticipates a steady $1 billion annual EBITDA stream. If project execution and financing execute successfully, a rerating of the shares may be imminent.
Before investing, check out the full research report below for detailed insights on the planned timeline for 2026, current industry trends, and what goes into our valuation analysis.
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