Investors May Hit Jackpot with Hacksaw's Foray into Prediction Markets

-Hacksaw AB (STO: HACK.ST) announced launch of platform to support fast-growing prediction markets

-Prediction market growth is comparable to the AI industry, with estimated $1 trillion size expected by 2030 and $10 trillion by 2035

-Hacksaw distributes games through more than 3,000 websites, some of which may want to offer prediction markets

-Fundamentals strong, with analysts forecasting 25%-plus revenue growth for next 3 years and an operating margin over 80%

-Core slots game business continues to thrive, with growth strong in both new and well-established markets

-Hacksaw has no debt and trades at just 7.5 times 2026 consensus earnings, well below peers

By John Jannarone

From elections to sports to the Academy Awards, prediction markets have become a cultural zeitgeist, capturing the attention of a growing audience that extends far beyond traditional gaming enthusiasts. Now, there’s a smart way to invest in the underlying technology supporting a boom that’s still in early days.

Meet Stockholm-based Hacksaw AB (STO: HACK.ST), a B2B gaming technology company valued around 17 billion Swedish krona ($1.7 billion) that serves operators and distributes games through more than 3,000 websites, providing tech and games to some of the biggest platforms such as BetMGM and DraftKings Inc. Those partners, in turn, attract the actuals player of games on computers and smartphones.

Big news came from Hacksaw this week, when it launched a B2B prediction markets platform to help operators offer prediction market experiences through Hacksaw’s technology infrastructure, distribution network and operator ecosystem. The company also secured a key license from the Malta Gaming Authority and is poised to begin working with existing partners who look eager to move quickly into the white-hot prediction markets.

As Group CEO Ana Vrabic Verdir said this week, Hacksaw’s latest move is a natural extension of its core business. “This launch reflects our strategy of extending Hacksaw’s technology ecosystem into adjacent verticals where we believe we can create long-term value for customers, partners and shareholders while further strengthening our role within the broader online gaming landscape,” she said in a release.

Ana Vrabic Verdir, Hacksaw SA Group CEO and Board member

It’s important for investors to understand how prediction markets differ from a typical casino game or sportsbook. Rather than betting directly with the house, prediction markets look more like futures contracts, with participants making two-sided agreements based on outcomes that are settled in cash.

The wagers are even priced differently, showing odds priced as a percentage (e.g. a $0.55 price on a “yes” outcome reflects a 55% chance and settles at $1 if it hits and zero if not). Traditional sports wagers using American odds are different, with, for example, a bet at “-150” indicating that a bettor needs to stake $150 to win $100.

As a consumer, it’s hard to avoid exposure to prediction markets. During Major League Baseball postseason games broadcast on Fox this week, Los Angeles Dodgers fans would see both live odds for the outcome shown as part of Fox’s coverage along with a racy advertisement for a prediction market that’s has generated even more buzz. Flip the channel to CNN, and you’ll see predictions displayed in place of polls, backed by data coming from a formal partnership with Kalshi, a major B2C prediction market platform. (Unlike Kalshi which targets individual players, Hacksaw serves operators who host the games).

All this translates to tremendous growth – and an opportunity for Hacksaw. Prediction market trading volume is set to reach $410 billion in 2026, growing at a 70% annually from 2025 to 2035, reaching $1 trillion in 2030 and $10 trillion by 2035, according to Bernstein forecasts.

Where will Hacksaw deliver prediction markets first? The blessing from the Malta Gaming Authority is a strong start and the company has a strong track record of securing licenses worldwide. Just as Hacksaw has navigated regulations with casino games, it can apply a similar playbook with prediction markets around the globe.

Hacksaw has a captive and likely eager audience of partners who it can help enter prediction markest as regulators allow. The company hasn’t announced any formal partnerships just yet, but several existing clients have shown strong interest in launching prediction markets, according to a person familiar with the matter. Given Hacksaw’s highly successful track record with slots, it should stand out as an obvious choice for existing partners.

Even before considering potential from prediction markets, investors should recognize the strength of Hacksaw’s existing business. When it comes to gaming, specific casino stocks can be a crapshoot thanks to fickle regulators and concentrated regional exposure. But Hacksaw boasts an extremely diversified book of business, operating in over 40 regulated markets and no single country accounts for more than 10% of bet volume. It also has secured key licenses around the world everywhere from Curacao to West Virginia (see full list here).

Hacksaw’s most important game category is slots, which have grown quickly worldwide as regulations open over time. Important to note is how long lasting that growth can be: Even in more mature markets like the U.K. where slots have been allowed and regulated for two decades, growth remains in the double digits. In younger markets, it’s even faster.

Consider the U.S., where only a few states allow casino games online and more are likely to follow in coming years. Assuming Hacksaw gains a 4% market share, Berenberg estimates Hacksaw will add 7.1% to its EBIT in 2028. Each subsequent 1% increase in US market share would add a further 1.7%, thanks to the company’s operating leverage, Berenberg says.

On top of that, Hacksaw drives growth through its own game development. The company’s in-house game release cadence has increased to more than five games per month, releasing 17 such games during the second quarter.

Hacksaw puts up head-turning numbers. It consistently delivers an EBIT margin above 80%, due to distribution scale around the world and the relatively low cost of game development. The vast majority of that operating profit translates to cash flow and Hacksaw has an explicit policy to return 75% of net profit to shareholders. And of course top line growth is very strong: Consensus estimates point to revenue growth above 25% for at least the next three years, according to FactSet.

Best of all, the stock is priced right. Hacksaw shares slipped earlier this week after it flagged more moderate third-quarter revenue growth, which is expected to be temporary. As a result, the shares trade at just 7.5 times 2026 consensus earnings, according to FactSet. That compares with Evolution at 13.4 times and Light & Wonder at 10.3 times.

Investors looking for a unique story with generational tailwinds and profitable growth should save some chips for a seat at Hacksaw’s table.