Swarmer Targets $200M in Pro Forma Revenue Next Year - Report

By Karen Roman

Swarmer, Inc.’s (Nasdaq: SWMR) pending acquisition ofUkrainian unmanned-ground-vehicle maker Ratel Robotics could lead to $200 million in 2027 revenue and $20 million in adjusted EBITDA, according to a research note by Lucid Capital Markets.

Swarmer, which boasts Blackwater founder and industry veteran Erik Prince as its non-executive chairman, is in a definitive agreement to buy Ratel for up to $224 million and it has $86 million in secured contracts and about 37% share of Ukrainian government UGV procurement spending, the note said.

The deal comes as Ukraine’s drone industry is beginning a consolidation phase, with more than 500 credible drone companies operating in the country while being home to some of the world’s advanced battlefield drone technology, it said.

Swarmer could potentially consolidate Ukraine’s fragmented drone industry into a full-stack drones, autonomy software and ground-vehicle platform, the note said.

Swarmer reported its U.S. listing, balance sheet, and combat-tested autonomy software give it an advantage in this market integration, with its software been used in more than 100,000 combat missions and its Ukrainian relationships being useful to identify and evaluate acquisition targets.

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The company will pay around $7.2 million in cash and 1.1 million shares at closing, with most of the remaining dependent on Ratel meeting its earnout targets, it announced. Swarmer had approximately $25 million in cash at the end of the second quarter and raised another $18 million through its equity line as of Aug. 17, giving it around $43 million of pro forma cash, it said.

The company’s price target is $60 based on 24 times EV/sales of a $40M estimated revenue in 2028 excluding Ratel’s pending acquisition, according to analysts’ estimates. On a pro forma basis, assuming Ratel achieves its earnout targets, Swarmer could trade at around 4 times 2027 EV/sales and 35 times 2027 EV/EBITDA, based on financial projections.

That compares with an average of 5.5 times 2027 EV/sales for peers like Ondas Holdings, Red Cat Holdings, Unusual Machines and Draganfly, none of which are expected to generate positive EBITDA in 2027, according to analysts. With additional acquisitions potentially ahead, Swarmer is aiming to build an unmanned defense platform that combines drones, autonomy software, and UGVs.